Analysts warn of escalating covert measures amid Sikh separatist tensions

By Andrew Atkinn Political Correspondent
Published: July 13, 2025

NEW DELHI — India’s efforts to suppress the growing Khalistan Referendum campaign have allegedly taken a new and concerning turn. After years of diplomatic lobbying and covert action, experts and investigators now warn of a possible false-flag operation strategy—staging or misattributing violent incidents in Western countries to dormant Khalistani militant groups.
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Diplomatic Pressure Fails to Halt Referendum Movement

Since 2021, India has urged governments in Canada, the UK, the US, Australia, and New Zealand to ban the Sikhs for Justice (SFJ)-led Khalistan Referendum and designate it as a terrorist-led initiative. While some countries expressed concern, most defended the movement under freedom of political expression laws.

Unable to derail the campaign diplomatically, India allegedly escalated to more direct measures.

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Phase 2: Targeted Killings Spark Global Blowback

The turning point came in June 2023, when Canadian PM Justin Trudeau accused Indian agents of involvement in the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian Sikh leader. The claim set off a diplomatic firestorm, with Canada and India expelling diplomats and intelligence-sharing among Five Eyes partners intensifying.

In the following months, additional alleged plots surfaced.

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The Pannun Case: U.S. Intercepts Assassination Attempt

In November 2023, the U.S. Department of Justice charged an Indian government employee with orchestrating an assassination plot against Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a U.S. citizen and SFJ’s legal counsel. The FBI disrupted the plan, preventing what officials called a serious breach of U.S. sovereignty.

 “This is not only unacceptable—it’s dangerous,” said Senator Chris Van Hollen during a Senate briefing on foreign interference.

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New Phase: False-Flag Tactics and Media Narrative

Recent attacks in Canada and the U.S., quickly attributed to militant groups like the Khalistan Tiger Force (KTF) and Babbar Khalsa, have raised alarms. Both groups have been largely inactive for decades, leading analysts to question whether these are authentic attacks—or state-orchestrated disinformation efforts.

Within hours of each incident, Indian media and diaspora-linked outlets push narratives linking the violence to Khalistan activism, despite little to no verification.

 “It’s a coordinated media war—intended to tarnish peaceful advocacy as terrorism,” said Dr. Aman Virk, a counterintelligence expert.

Strategic Intent or Political Gamble?

Analysts suggest India’s goals may include:

Discrediting the peaceful referendum movement.

Gaining international support to ban SFJ.

Fueling domestic nationalism ahead of elections.

Distracting from ongoing investigations.

But the risks are equally high. Western democracies are increasingly alert to foreign interference, especially as global trust in India’s democratic processes comes under scrutiny.

What's Next?

Pannun Case Trial: U.S. federal courts continue proceedings. Convictions could strain India–U.S. ties.

Intelligence Reviews: Agencies in Canada, New Zealand, Australia, USA and the UK are reportedly reassessing Indian diplomatic and covert footprints.

Community Response: Sikh advocacy groups are demanding independent investigations and legal protections.

India's shift from diplomacy to covert aggression and now potentially to information warfare through false-flag operations signals an evolving geopolitical clash over Sikh self-determination. As the global stage watches closely, the truth behind each incident matters more than ever.